So.. The Military Establishment have readjusted the course.. Or perhaps re-inverted it? I can’t say for certain. Eventually the hurdling events could lead to such a conclusion, however I’d suggest not be hasty otherwise we may lose track or thrive ahead without noticing the trail indicators.
What was the real motivator that drove the Egyptian Brass to intervene firmly, swiftly, vigilantly and radically? What fears drove the CIA & Co to press Al Sissy into the decisions he took ever since November last? Where did the Brotherhood got it all wrong? How would this affect the Arab Spring as a whole? And why the world is so confused in defining Egypt’s change of régime (revolution or coup)?
Well to answer all of these interrogatives, and many more; I would settle here to bring you straight to the bottom line.. Where the conclusion is and whereas the motivators are Hamas and the Suez Canal; while the trail of indicators is completely another matter.
At first here are the motivators:
The frequent and repeated infiltrations of Hamas militants into Sinai (to pass on directives, instructions and finances to their peers who evaded captivity in the January 2011 chaotic events). Of course this could mean training Jihadist fresh recruits anywhere in the Sinai maze, flourishing arms trade and smuggling of strategic goods and commodities to a suffering population into the sanctioned Gaza Strip.
The river of petro-dollars in financial support to Egypt’s Brotherhood Presidency, mostly originating from the ex Prince of Qatar, having for target to establish a multitude of giant projects surrounding the Suez Canal strategic zone; and that is nourishing international fears about the sorts of the Canal and whom shall have the last word in running it.
Now for the trail of indicators, since the space is limited, let me just state the headings and hope that you will elaborate on each as you wish:
· IMF loan;
· US annual billion and a half in Military Aids;
· the uninterrupted chain of communications between Egypt’s Brass and the Pentagon;
· the US closed doors diplomatic contacts with the Brotherhood and with the opposition;
· Kerry’s repeated visits to Jordan, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt;
· the Supreme Court verdict to reinstate the Ex General Prosecutor ousted by the Brotherhood;
· the US firm refusal to bring Mubarak & Co before a Court Marshall, only a Civil Tribunal so that the defence may engage in a long trial to gain the needed precious time for prescribing the vague accusations;
· the Coptic pressure;
· the Ethiopian Dam case;
· the abdication of Al Thany of Qatar to his son Prince Tamim;
· the formation of the National Salvation Front;
And on top of all that, there are the Brotherhood’s unrealistic vision and bad interpretation to the Egyptian consensus changing moods; because their fatal mistake was to interpret the 51% in favour as the votes of devoted Brotherhood’s followers, overlooking the fact that most of that electorate voted for fear of the return of the Military Brass on top of the Executive.
Moreover, by refusing to give an ear to the opposition and the street, the 2nd ex-President did not report to his employer (the Egyptian People) but gave all his devotion to execute the Brotherhood’s Supreme Guide instructions, directives, indications…etc.
So by placing the supreme strategic targets of the Brotherhood (The Islamic Middle East) as an immediate national priority rather that providing any sign of consideration to the people’s urgent needs (Security, Labour, Prices, Wages, Pensions, Health Care, Education, Gas, Water, Fuel, Energy, Bread, Corruption, Justice, Nile Water, Agriculture, Industry, Tourism… Etc.); he and the Brotherhood opened the door wide open for all possible, imaginable and non, scenarios.
In the meantime Egyptians are dying, women are being raped, priests are killed, Copt houses are burned, violence is spreading, and all are awaiting the moves of the newly sworn-in President.
That’s why I continue to express my refusal to ‘this’ type of Presidential Monarchy as the model to preserve, because so far it proved so many times and everywhere its failure to protect its values, manage crisis or adjust its course except by overpowering FORCE or shrewd CHEAT.
The System has failed since 1952.. Shall we try something else?
Can the one who sat on the helm of the Constitutional Court, the man who does not dream his verdicts but examine facts and draw conclusions to judge by the spirit of the text not by the text itself, bring the answer?Pass On The Word.