The dawn must come.

The dawn must come.

Wednesday, 16 November 2011

Mercy and Pardon for them.. Scourge and Damnation for us?

Ahmed M. EL NAHAS – November the 9th 2011

United States president Barack Obama dictated certain “limitations” to the power at the disposal of Israel saying: “Israel's navy can intercept weapons shipments from Iran, Israel's Military Intelligence can expose Hamas long-range missile tests from Gaza, but at least for the time being, as long as the international community is conducting dialogue with Tehran over its controversial nuclear program, it is best that Israel doesn't do too much…”  to annoy the adults!

But that was in 2009 when the Obama administration’s priorities were completely different. So the unsatisfied Israel had to force things towards its own strategic ends, as it always do, and plans were made to speed events forward, so that now we can see the American diplomats lobbying through the UN and NATO corridors to get support for heavier sanctions on Iran and tighter embargo in the Mediterranean and the Arabian sea and Gulf; all such actions totally sponsored by Obama himself, thus clearly there is an Isramerican agreement not only on the necessity to strike Iran, but as well on every detail related to the offensive executive action: when, how, who will do what, and where. And such public outings exhibited by the American president should not be discarded as “elections times banners”. We must consider the possibility that they are an essential chapter in a well conceived plan to launch a preventive war against Iran, a plan designed ever since the 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah War (called the Second Lebanon War in Israel).

But why the rush?.. Let me guide you in a step by step tour through that maze of interlaced schemes carefully designed to distort our vision and deviate our attention from the main event lying in the centre of that maze, a massive quick strike against Iran either by Israel and later on the United States (remember the Sèvres war plot of 1956 resulting in the Tripartite assault over Egypt), endorsed by a tighten NATO/EU/US embargo (which is already on course as you will see) leading to a final target and that is to weaken Iran’s armed forces, destroy its nuclear capabilities and possibly overthrow its “Islamic Rule”.

Hezb’Allah was always the “thorn in the flesh” of Israel keeping it for a long time on tenter-hooks, so something must be done to neutralize such pain. Hence the Rafick El Hariry assassination, and when in time the International Criminal Court guided rule would increase the pressure labeling the resistance movement a Terrorist Organisation.

Also something must be done to neutralize Syria and prevent it from supplying Hezb’Allah with Iranian weaponry increasing Lebanese resistance offensive capabilities, and here a three folds scheme was devised:

Ø  First: to force Syria out of Lebanon through a quick staged war putting Lebanese armed forces against the Syrians under the lights of an orchestrated international media campaign. And that was achieved little less than a decade ago.

Ø  Second: to establish a Mediterranean/Red Sea embargo fishing for anything that can be used as arms of any kind to be connected somehow to the Syrian government, and tie Syria to Hezb’Allah and Hamas. The interception of hundreds of tons of weapons, believed to be an Iranian shipment meant for Hezbollah, in the Mediterranean wasn't any different from similar operations carried out by the U.S. Navy, twice this year, though Israel seized a significantly larger amount of weapons. Therefore, the display of the loot the IDF invited everyone to see at the Ashdod port received a lukewarm welcome by the world media saying “it is great that Israel is uncovering and seizing ‘Iranian’ weapons”. the world leaders must be telling themselves, but is there anything here that we didn't know well before the Israeli commandos raided the Antigua-flagged ship in the middle of the night?

Ø  Third: to create internal unrests and hopefully to overthrow the Syrian régime, in order to loosen the Iranian connection with resistance movements in the region, mainly Hezb’Allah and Hamas (both qualified by Israeli and sympathising international media as “Terrorist Organisations”. Well, we all know where from did the revolution winds blew first in Syria. Out from Deraa, that poor little Syrian town lying at the foot of the occupied Golan Heights. An ideal place to plant sleepers and recruit local assets to use the new winds blowing over the region to surf over the “Arab Spring” revolutionary tidal wave sweeping the Middle East.

Parallel to that, an effort must be exercised to discredit Iran’s image and create the alibi for the final assault. And here comes the same Isramerican “déjà-vu” and  repeatedly rehearsed script. Exaggerated news and intelligence reports (like Iran’s presumed intention to assassinate a Saudi Ambassador) are being systematically published, on regular media and specialised reviews all over the world, analysing Iran nuclear threat. All aiming at escalating fear and acquiring an international public opinion favourable to “any necessary mean”. Here are some of these stories:

Ø  “The Iranians have equipped and paid for, and trained, a massive unguided rocket and guided missile force in Lebanon (the largest such force in human history). These missiles are in-place as a MAD force (a MAD ~ mutually assured destruction ~ force is one that is a doomsday force; established to prevent the use of overwhelming military force by allowing a return ‘punch’ of overwhelming military destructive force upon one's enemy). The total number of missiles and rockets in Lebanon are variously estimated at between 40,000 and 110,000. While many are unguided Katyusha rockets, many are longer ranged guided missiles. All are operated by Hezbollah Special Forces launch teams”.

Ø  “The Hezbollah Special Forces are in-effect a highly trained and well-equipped Iranian commando force of at least a Brigade in size. They man and protect a large number of mostly unguided and rather crude rockets, generally Katyusha 122mm artillery rockets with a 19 mile/30km range and capable of delivering approximately 66 pounds/30kg of warheads. Additionally, Hezbollah are known to possess a considerable number of more advanced and longer range missiles. During the 2006 war Hezbollah fired approximately 4,000 rockets (95% of which were Katyushas) all utilizing only ‘dumb’ high explosive warheads. Some Iranian build and supplied Fajr-3 and Ra'ad 1 liquid-fueled missiles were also fired. It is believed that the larger and longer range missiles are directly under the control of Syrian and Iranian officers”.

Ø  “The Syrians had purchased (and supplied to Hezbollah) a large number of very nasty, relatively low cost Russian AT-14 Kornet solid fuel anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM) and the Iranian trained Hezbollah commandos dug in massive numbers of concrete bunkers and firing positions”.

Ø  “Israel will face a truly massive number of rockets and missiles from Lebanon with radiological, chemical, biological and FAE (fuel air explosive) weapons of mass destruction warheads”.

Ø  “Additionally, a sizable number of such weapons/warheads will be fired from Gaza and the West Bank. The Syrians will be using larger more accurate guided missiles to shower WMD upon Israel as will the Iranians. To counter this, the Israelis will be using their Green Pine Radar system and a combination of Israeli and American anti-missile missiles. They will have good success in knocking down many incoming missiles but the sheer number of incoming weapons will totally overload all defensive measures.  Large parts of Israel will be contaminated with radiation with extremely long half-lives (many tens of thousands of years in some cases), with a mix of chemical, FAE, and biological nightmares thrown in for good measure. Total deaths will amount to one-third to one-half of the Israeli population with a large additional number being injured”.

Ø  “The combination of short to medium range rockets and guided missiles in Lebanon, and the longer range guided missiles in Syria, the smaller number of rockets and missiles in the West Bank and Gaza, and the longer range guided missiles in Iran present a massive throw weight of warheads aimed at Israel”.

Ø  “Iranian sleeper teams in North America and western Europe will begin to "seed" the populations of these areas with a number (perhaps in the several dozens) of different man made killer viruses. People in movie theaters, churches, synagogues, shopping malls, subway stations, airports, etc., will be exposed without anyone knowing it at the time, to these advanced biowar viruses. About nine to ten days later the computer reporting systems in the western countries will begin to report back strange illnesses. That will trigger a host of measures to contain the advanced bio-war viruses but it will simply be too late to prevent a massive outbreak of horrific illnesses”.

Trafficking such nonsense will procure public consensus to the case, and once the public opinion is conquered, some additional tactical moves must be undergone to convince Iran that it is not a bluff, and that they are playing the hand and Iran must see the call. To start Israeli press has become fixated on stories that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is considering a military attack on the Iranian nuclear program. Some very reputable Israeli journalists are reporting that the prime minister and his defense minister, Ehud Barak, are pushing the cabinet to vote in favor of an attack. On November 2nd 2011, the day marking the 94th memory of the Balfour Declaration, Israel tested one of its long-range missiles, adding to the tension.

Nahum Barnea, one of Israel’s best and most respected reporters, reported on Haaretz subsequent news on a large Israeli Air Force training exercise late October that took place on the Italian island of Sardinia, in which IAF long-range fighter bombers practiced an extended-range attack plan with the Italian, German, and Dutch air forces.

Israel have lately test-fired one of its Jericho missiles, which can hit targets all over Iran. And on September 23rd president Obama secretly approved the transfer of “Bunker Buster Bombs” to Israel. And the Pentagon, with the Israeli Military Intelligence, have carefully chosen the primary targets for the USAF and Israeli bomber groups to hit in Saghand and Yazd: the Uranium enrichment facility in Natanz, a heavy water plant and radioisotope facility in Arak, the Ardekan Nuclear Fuel Unit, the Uranium Conversion Facility and Nuclear Technology Centre in Isfahan.

Now that this massive interlaced plan have brought Iran and its allies in the region, especially Syria and Hizb’Allah, under enormous pressure from the international community on a number of fronts: Iran for allegedly plotting to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington; Syria for killing thousands of its own citizens in the Arab Awakening; and Hizb’Allah for murdering former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri in 2005; the International Atomic Energy Agency is due to publish a new report on Iran’s nuclear program this month, which could ratchet up the issue further; I can tell that you would agree with me that it’s nothing but a revised and refined Iraq scenario. Only this time excluding the invasion and ground assault bit.

Bear in mind that such complex schemes, requiring consolidated and well orchestrated logistic and intelligence efforts: in that case the Pentagon and European allies together with the various Israeli Intelligence Agencies; did not materialize overnight, but simmered for quite some time.

Now that we’ve reached the end of our tour, a vigilant observer may notice that all the above would inevitably threaten some vital national interests of other nations like Russia, china, Saudi Arabia, Europe, and most the region’s countries from the Mediterranean costs to the Arabian Sea and Gulf. So, the doubt is legitimate and the question will no longer be limited to the “If” or “When”.. It would certainly become: “Could a similar tactical preventive strike get out of control and cut loose getting wider bringing in others into the battle-field?”.

Which brings me back to the title parable, or “Why is it a right for the ‘West’ to obtain and control modern technology (nuclear, chemical and biological whether used for peaceful or belligerent applications), and not Iran for instance? Is it only a Jew’s discovery monopolised by Christian and pagan ‘civilisations', denied to whomever failing to meet their pre-set criterion to obtain and use it? Especially Muslims?”.

And don’t say a word about Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, it is just the exception to prove the rule.. And it is bound to become the next stop. Only if the present one remains limited to the “Conventional War” status!

Pass On The Word.

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