Ahmed M. EL NAHAS – November th3 8th 2011.
· Back in December 2005, Israel’s drums of war sounded so loud that it could be heard on Mars. By then the prime minister Ariel Sharon ordered Israel’s armed forces to prepare for air strikes on uranium enrichment sites in Iran (Times (London), Dec 11, 2005).
· On December 9, Israeli Minister of Defense, Shaul Mofaz, affirmed that in view of Teheran’s nuclear plans, Tel Aviv should “not count on diplomatic negotiations but prepare other solutions”. (La Jornada, Dec. 10, 2005).
· In early December, Ahron Zoevi Farkash, the Israeli military intelligence chief told the Israeli parliament (Knesset) that “if by the end of March, the international community is unable to refer the Iranian issue to the United Nations Security Council, then we can say that the international effort has run its course” (Times, Dec. 11, 2005). In plain Hebrew, if international diplomatic negotiations fail to comply with Israel’s timetable, Israel will unilaterally, militarily attack Iran.
· Benjamin Netanyahu, then leader of the Likud Party and candidate for Prime Minister stated that if Sharon did not act against Iran, “then when I form the new Israeli government (after the March 2006 elections) we’ll do what we did in the past against Saddam’s reactor”. (Times Dec 11, 2005).
· All top Israeli officials have pronounced the end of March as the deadline for launching a military assault on Iran. The thinking behind this date is to heighten the pressure on the US to force the sanctions issue in the Security Council. The tactic is to blackmail Washington with the “war or else” threat, into pressuring Europe (namely Great Britain, France, Germany and Russia) into approving sanctions.
Now, in November 2011, the scenery has changed quite a bit. And as both the American and Israeli strategic interests are seriously defied by the growing “instability” throughout the Arab world, thus a war must take the stage and sedate the region for a while, until the new deck of cards is shuffled and prepared for a new hand to be dealt in an absurd endless game on the table of the Big Ones.
The United States have almost evacuated Iraq and does not fear for a heavy body count in its ranks like those days back in 2005, Europe is facing a tremendous economic crisis threatening to serve the entire old continent to the IMF for breakfast, Israel needs to overcome its losses (prisoners exchange, the declaration of Palestine as an active member of UNESCO, the surrounding “revolutions” among neighbouring countries, the Turkish/Arab/Iranian rapprochement…etc) with a flagrant gesture to distort and deviate international and regional attention from the real target: “secure the region’s resources by one single blow under its full control and on behalf of (or with) a powerful friend (USA), using the consent of needy allies (an economically suffering Europe)”.
The outcome of a flash “Preventive/Pre-emptive Attack” scenario would be:
Ø Weakening the Iranian economy through political isolation, sanctions and cutting provisions from Russia and China,
Ø Obliterating Iran’s nuclear programmes,
Ø Destroying Iran’s infrastructure,
Ø Reducing Iran’s military capabilities to the minimum permitted defensive levels,
Ø Removing the Hezbollah threat(*) once and for all, and destroy its missile and rocket launchers in Lebanon,
Ø Discouraging Arab countries from any kind of friendly relations with Iran, and destabilizing the ones who maintain close relations with it like Syria,
Ø Mobilising the Iranian mass against the régime and place a “friendly moderate” government,
Ø Increasing political pressure over Turkey and reactivate the Euphrates Water negotiations,
Ø Ensuring an internal political victory for the Likud and secure the second term,
Ø Maintaining the role of the “Only Caretaker” of Western interests in the Middle East & North Africa,
Ø Tightening the grasp over the American decision making centres to increase the pressure over the White House to endorse and support Israel policy, and
Ø Securing its undeclared role as the only trustworthy and reliable partner in the “One World Government Corporation”, aka the “New World Order”.
That’s not the entire story. As history repeats itself, you may further elaborate on the Isramerican declared “reasons” aiming to convince the world that “a preventive/pre-emptive strike in Iran is legitimate and is the only resourceful solution to make peace prevail”!!
So stay around and.. Pass On The Word.
(*)According to Israeli official intelligence reports, the Hezbollah Special Forces are in-effect a highly trained and well-equipped commando force of at least a Brigade in size. They man and protect a large number of mostly unguided and rather crude rockets, generally Katyusha 122mm artillery rockets with a 19 mile/30km range and capable of delivering approximately 66 pounds/30kg of warheads, and a considerable number of more advanced and longer range missiles.
In the 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah War (called the Second Lebanon War in Israel), After over 50 Merkava main battle tanks were hit, and the high tech American made warplanes and pinpoint weapons proved ineffective, Israel had to chose to either use neutron bombs (a type of nuclear weapon that produces a higher short term radiological output and less blast output than normal nuclear weapons) or lose a large number of Israeli solders to remove the Hezbollah threat; or declare peace and walk away for the time being .. the Israelis chose the latter.
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