A Critical Choice.

By: Ahmed M. EL NAHAS – Montopoli April 17^th 2012.

An objective screening of the candidates running for the Egyptian Presidency, since they already started campaigning; is due and its outcome may be surprisingly astonishing. For the eyes of a moderate observer can’t miss the principle fact that most of the candidates if not all have no clear cut program that can be weighed, measured, qualified, quantified and analysed. That is why I dare say that they all are capable of every demagogic trick in the box by doing everything and promising anything appealing to the mass, The Egyptian Mass.

But only few of the lot may be fit only for frequent appearances on TV screens and front pages to ‘blablaa’ anything but the merit of the issue in question: “A plausible plan making front to the short and long term political and economic solutions to Egypt’s pressing grievances, locally as well as internationally”. A National Project that provides solutions. Nevertheless, none of those candidates is credible enough as to ensure and guarantee a pragmatic approach to defy and solve the enormous challenges characterising the momentum.

I will summarise a brief account on those candidates profiles in order to better position their individual orientation categorically under the main headings whether “Moderate Islamists”, “Radical Islamists (Salafists)”, “Communists”, “Liberals”, “Nationalists”, “Democrats”, “Military Fascists” or otherwise!!

·         Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh: A Muslim Brotherhood figure popular with Egyptian youth, who declared his candidacy in May 2011. He was expelled from the Brotherhood for this decision on 20 June of that year, as it contradicted an earlier Guidance Bureau decision that the Brotherhood would not put forward a candidate in 2011.

·         Hazem Salah Abu Ismail: is an independent, ultra-conservative Salafi Islamist lawyer and politician. He rejects the idea of reconciling the SHARI’A (religious Law of Islam) with personal freedom as declared in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. He announced to make the veil mandatory for Egyptian women in case of being elected. He would ban the consumption of alcohol in public, even for tourists. Abu Ismail advocates the closure of gambling casinos, which are currently reserved for foreign visitors. Tourists wearing two-pieces swimming suits should be arrested, according to Abu Ismail. Moreover, he calls for abolishing the Shura Council which is the upper house of the Egyptian parliament. The case of his mother’s dual nationality is yet to be concluded.

·         Khaled Ali: announced his campaign on 27 February 2012,and applied for elections on 8 April 2012 as an independent with the support of 32 elected officials in both chambers of parliament the youngest candidate to enter the race. Ali is a prominent Egyptian lawyer and activist, known for his work advocating reform of corruption in the government and private sector and his promotion of social justice and labor rights. He’s been qualified by the media as a “legendary anti-corruption crusader” and otherwise described as “Egypt’s best-known counselor and defender of independent unions and worker protests”. His supporters see him as filling the void left by Mohamed El Baradei's withdrawal. Ali's lack of experience as a politician is a concern. Many, even in the revolutionary movement, remain skeptical about his candidacy. Many are concerned that he could split the vote in a way that would sway the election towards representatives of the prior regime. Egyptian socialists of the ‘Socialist Popular Alliance Party’ are considering backing his campaign.

·         Mohammed Salim Al-Awa: an Islamic thinker, declared his candidacy on 14 June 2011. The fact that Al-Awa and Aboul Fotouh belong to the same school of thought have led to press speculation about vote-splitting and the possibility of their uniting behind a single candidate. Aboul Fotouh has recognized this possibility.

·         Hisham Bastawisy: is an Egyptian judge and the vice president of the Egyptian Court of Cassation. He was one of the leaders of the Egyptian opposition before and during the 2011 Egyptian revolution. He is running for the Egyptian presidential elections as a representative of the National Progressive Unionist Party (Tagammuo).

·         Abu Al-Izz Al-Hariri: is an Alexandria MP representing the Socialist Popular Alliance Party and the Revolution Continues Alliance. He filed his application on 13 Mars 2012.

·         Amr Moussa: When asked about the rumors that he might run for the 2012 presidential elections, he refused to rule out the possibility of running for the office, leaving the door open to expectations. He argued that, “It's the right of every citizen that has the capacity and efficiency to aspire to any political office that would allow him to contribute to the service of his nation”. He further stated to the press that the qualities required of the President also apply to ‘Gamal Mubarak’ arguing that the citizenship, rights and obligations which apply to himself can also be applied to the son of the ousted president. He also expressed appreciation for “the confidence expressed by many people when they talk about his candidacy for the Egyptian presidency, and expressed that the message reached him”. On 27 February 2011 he announced he would be running for president saying “God willing, I will be one of them”.

·         Ayman Nour: is the founder of Al-Ghad Party, leader of Ghad  El Thawra Party and former candidate in the 2005 presidential elections in which he emerged as runner-up to the winning President Hosni Mubarak. Ayman Nour was jailed in 2006 few months after the presidential elections when he was convicted in charges of forgery. He was later removed from the presidency of Al Ghad Party. In February 2009, he was released from prison under an amnesty due to health reasons. It has been alleged that his release from prison was due to U.S. President Obama demanding his release as a condition to meet with Mubarak. Ayman Nour's ability to candidate was doubtful, because of being an ex-convict and a former prisoner. However, he was granted amnesty by the ruling SCAF and is thus not longer banned from political activity but eligible for the presidency.

·         Hamdeen Sabahi: the leader of the Nasserist Dignity Party officially filed his application on 6 April 2012.

·         Ahmed Shafik: officially launched his presidential campaign on 2 November 2011. He was the last Prime Minister appointed by Mubarak once the January 2011 Revolution broke up. He resigned only three weeks after the deposition of the long term president. Being an ex Armed Forces General, he maintains good terms with the ruling SCAF.

·         Khairat El-Shater: After initially deciding not to field a candidate, the Muslim Brotherhood announced on 31 March 2012 that its deputy supreme guide would run for president. El-Shater, who was convicted and imprisoned for several years during the rule of Mubarak, might be excluded from the race due to the ban of ex-convicts from political activity. The ruling military council had pardoned him, but a case was filed to eliminate him from the election, because the pardon has not been endorsed by a criminal court. The Brotherhood was forced to field the candidacy of Mohamed Morsy the president of the ‘Freedom and Justice Party’ as an alternative candidate in case El-Shater's candidacy in invalidated.

·         Omar Suleiman: General Omar Suleiman was director of the General Intelligence Service for decades under Mubarak, and in 2011, shortly after the burst of the revolution, was appointed by Mubarak as his Vice President in a desperate yet in vain try to calm the boiling waters of the revolution. Suleiman announced his candidacy on 6 April 2012.

·         Minor Candidates: Ahmad Awad Al-Saidi of the National Party of Egypt; Abd’Allah El Assal of the Authenticity Party previous assistant to the Foreign Minister and retired ambassador; Ebrahim El Ghareeb independent; Ashraf Barouma president of Misr Al Kenanah Party; Mahmoud Hossam president of The Beginning Party candidate as independent; Mohammad Fawzi Issa of the Democratic Generation Party; Hossam Kheir Allah of the Democratic Peace Party; Hossam Khairat of the Egyptian Arab Socialist Party; Mamdouh Kotb previous director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate and nominee of the Civilisation Party; Mortada Mansour previous Chairman of the Zamalek Sporting Club and nominee of the National Party of Egypt.

·         Withdrawn candidates: Dr. Mohammad El Baradei, Bothaina Kamel, and Saad El Soghayar!!

In our present analysis we can’t miss the importance of the numbers as they are definitely a guiding factor, so let me give you a chronological hint of the ratings which should enlighten our vision. I will limit my presentation to the favourites conditioned by the space:

Published	Agent	Size	Moussa	A. Ismail	AFotouh	Suleiman	Shafik	Sabahi	Al Awa	El Shater	Nour	Baradei
02/2011	YouGog	1871	49%	---	---	9%	---	1%	---	---	1%	2%
O3/2011	IPI	615	37%	---	---	5%	---	---	---	---	1%	2%
06/2011	IPI	800	32%	---	---	---	---	3%	---	---	3%	2%
06/2011	Newsweek	1008	16%	---	5%	4%	12%	2%	6%	---	4%	12%
06/2011	3way race	1008	47%	---	16%	---	---	---	---	---	---	19%
08/2011	ACPSS	2400	44%	5%	2%	9%	12%	5%	5%	---	6%	4%
10/2011	PressTV	1030	42%	---	---	---	15%	---	---	---	---	13%
10/2011	ACPSS	2400	45%	5%	1.6%	11%	13%	5.7%	4.7%	---	5%	3.5%
11/2011	ACPSS	2400	39%	6%	1.5%	7%	8.5%	4%	5.7%	---	3%	2.9%
03/2012	Ahram	1200	32%	23%	8.3%	9%	10%	5%	4%	---	1%	1%
04/2012	Ahram	1200	31%	29%	8.5%	8%	7.5%	3.9%	3.2%	1.7%	1.4%	---

You can make your math and try all the possible combinations you want out of that figure, just consider that on top certain ‘external players’ will try their utmost to influence the final outcome in favour of their proper strategic interests; unless ‘WE’ make well our homework and insist to really vote freely in a way that the choice would actually represent the majority’s wish and by which the rest would rest and tolerate the idea to oppose in democratic respect not by consuming a hateful angry grudge and manifest vindictive retaliatory activities, as hoped and perhaps even planned by the Counter Revolutionary forces and their ‘external players’ sponsors and allies.

Out from the previous profiling line-up let me underline that a “Military Fascist Dictatorship” or a “Religious  Régime” may look as two paradox factors placed on the extremities of the Egyptian political equation, yet they are featuring the same fundamental characteristics because: a) Both would use oppressive measures to maintain stability and power, b) both will never allow true democratic practice, and c) both shall deny the principles mentioned in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, each by preaching his own reasons and prophesising his teachings.       

A closer look at the pointers of the scale who may determine the final outcome of the elections, we can distinguish the representatives of the two camps contenders among the other rivals in that race, and whom their eventual open clash would dangerously drag the entire country into a long and bloody “Season Of Tension”; which normally follows every serious political unrest, and precedes the coronation of a new order. A season that no one can predict its end results. That’s why I want to express my own concern on how hazardous their possible ascent to the throne shall be.

To many, Suleiman's candidacy is an affront to the very principles that motivated the Egyptian revolution in the first place. His association with the ousted régime, his record of brutal crackdowns on Islamist groups, and the alleged human-rights violations he committed while working with the U.S. CIA to interrogate suspected terrorists all make him a political pariah in the eyes of many Egyptians.

Representing the Ultra Conservative Military Institution in all its might, Suleiman as well as Shafik are in the front row. They would probably want  the ‘Generals’ to retreat to the barracks, provided they keep the privileges gained during six decades of veiled military rule. But signals are not encouraging, they are even threatening a confrontation with other political and social movements especially with the “Brotherhood” and the “Salafists”; such signals were clearly manifested when the ‘SCAF’ aired a statement lately (right after Suleiman’s candidacy!) warning the ‘Islamist Block’ not to repeat “PAST MISTAKES”, in an apparent reference to the Brotherhood’s brief honeymoon with the ‘Generals’ after the 1952 coup, which soon ended with a ban and a spate of military trials.

Hazem Salah Abu-Ismail, a Salafi Islamist, is a competing runner. He is a socially ultraconservative candidate who has promised to gradually implement Sharia law, and his foreign-policy platform is nationalist to the point of isolationism. His supporters are among the most ardently vocal, although many liberal voters dread his ascension. That’s why we can read on April 7^th  issue of  “The Economist” in its interpretation to the Egyptian Presidential elections: “FEW could have predicted when protesters toppled President Hosni Mubarak last year that Egyptians would replace him with a Salafist preacher. But the clamour in Egypt’s streets suggests that Hazem Abu Ismail, a lawyer-cum-sermoniser committed to replicating the seventh-century ways of the Prophet Mohammed, could be the country’s next pharaoh”.

Presidential candidate Khairat al-Shater, a more moderate Islamist, has been tacitly supported by U.S. officials. He is a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, whose Egyptian political wing, the “Freedom and Justice Party”, already enjoys considerable power after consolidating a strong majority in last winter’s “Legislative Elections” for the two seeds of the Parliament. Many voters are wary of Shater's candidacy, since an FJP presidency combined with a Parliamentary crushing majority could constitute a dangerous consolidation of political power.

What I know for certain is that two factors are decisive to maintain the equilibrium in a person’s judgement capabilities, brain and heart, otherwise expressed as “Education and Emotions”.  If they are used in harmony and adequately dosed, while confronting any given issue, our decisions will turn out closer to being precise and usefull. But if otherwise, when one of them overtakes the other, then the decision we’re making, or the side we’re choosing, will definitely result  “Misjudged” and consequently would mislead our reasoning into undesired stands and inaccurate conclusions.

That is precisely the core of our social problems in our eastern societies. The cultural and educative baggage we are carrying, that we received in the deliberately deteriorated educational institutions, left us completely vulnerable and unprepared to make “Calculated  Choices”  or take “Educated Decisions” simply because we were not taught to do so. We were deprived from the “sense of critic” on purpose, and we were never allowed to prove and explore our human emotions, feelings or sentiments and that is why our relations are confused, not clearly identified and constantly shifting from “relative” and “moderate” to “absolute” and “extreme”: love, hate, trust, friendship, subordination, supervision, marriage and so on.

When the honourable “Taha Hussein” fought historic battles to establish a “Free Education for All”, as a national strategic policy, he had in mind that “Educative Project” suitable for a modern sovereign democracy in compliance with the known “Free Democracies”. Unfortunately, few years after such a conquest, inadequate and incompetent small men came to rule, by whom their work was to demolish the project and establish what we had in the past six decades.

The internet generation went to the streets to rebel against big issues like “Social Injustice”, “Oppression” and “Institutional Corruption” that warm morning of January 25^th 2011; after which their rebellion, gaining more energy through “extreme rage”, became a “pre-revolution” that set enormous pressure on the establishment forcing it to sacrifice its major symbols.. That was a success.. But it was an ‘Emotional’ one lacking the ‘Educated’ part of “planning, organizing, coordinating, assigning, delegating, executing, communicating, fund raising…etc”.

Will the coming vote fill in the gap??

Pass on the word.

P.S.: The Presidential Elections High Commission rejected the candidacies of 10 contenders, among whom we read the names of Suleiman, Nour, El Shater and Abou Ismail. I will wait and see the motivations of the decision before commenting in a coming post.