Hunting for a Capital.

By: Ahmed M. ElNahhas – Montopoli, June 14^th 2015.

It seem more than ever plausible the theory that the US strategy - elaborated by the Pentagon, the CIA and approved at the Oval Office - to confront the growing ISIL threat; is much similar to the one implemented at the eighties of last century through the bloody 8 year Iraq/Iran war. In this case to allow ISIL carry out the mission to eliminate Assad and drain Syria’s official army strength.. Because, same as Iraq, without a strong army the country will fall into chaos and disintegrate into sectarian fragments coq fighting each other for decades to come. (same scenario applied in Somalia, Afghanistan, Sudan, Libya and later in Yemen).

“The Independent”  published lately a report signed by its envoy Robert Fisk, in which he described his 2000 miles trip across Syria to document his personal views and observations on both sides of the ongoing bloody conflict.. Reading the article and what’s between its lines, the idea I have synthesised here on top will got clearer. Here is the essence of what Robert Fisk reported.

Actual physical evidence on battle fields (in Syria as in Iraq) show that ISIL warriors and Al Nusra Front combatants are using sophisticated high tech weaponry and equipment, most of which are US made:

a)The insurgents possess hundreds of “Anti-Tank Remote Controlled Missiles” and medium range anti-tank Rocket Propelled Grenades, enabling them to engage a Syrian army tank and launch simultaneously 3 or 4 shells disabling its anti-fire circuits; thus causing the explosion of the ammunition and burning the soldiers transported inside the vehicle; b) the militias have in their disposition “Tactical Uniforms” of the last generation; c) they often use “Thermal Missiles”; d) thousands of Quran books in Russian language (for the Chechen fighters) are available and in circulation; and e) tens of thousands of Chocolate Energy Bars demonstrate how ISIL care for the fitness of its warriors!

From another perspective: while Washington’s think tanks “Experts” believe that Syrian army is performing a “Tactical Retreat” towards the high grounds habitat of Assad’s Alawi sect’s, to keep open the way between Damascus and the Mediterranean passing by Homs; Syrian “Experts” affirm that what Assad must do is to defend at all costs the principal cities along the way from Aleppo driving south through Hama, Homs and Damascus; in order to remove away from Al Nusra or ISIL any possibility to control a potential Syrian Capital. Their control over Raqqa , a small village in the desert or even holding Palmira is of no strategic value. But getting hold of Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city, means that ISIL do have an authentic Capital for their presumed state.

Iranian, Afghan Shia, Hezb’Allah are fighting in support of Assad because the official army have already lost 50000 men. And the moment the armed forces should suffer a defeat, there will not be a power to maintain the National Unity.

Now, let us hear what Dr. Faisal Mekdad – the Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister – had to say interviewed by Robert Fisk the War Reporter for the Independent:

“Several months ago – before the intervention of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey to sustain Al Nusra and ISIL, we were about to mark a historical advance. The occupation of a city like Edlib would have never took place without a substantial Turkish intervention.. Attacking Edlib and Jisr Al Shugour were Turkish and Checen fighters.. By now it is clear that without reorganizing and reinforcing the army allowing it to activate the command’s decisions; reaching the prefixed objectives will not be possible”.

Commenting of that statement, Robert Fisk said: “Dr. Mekdad is talking about new armaments that must substitute the obsolete Warsaw Pact tanks; obviously it is more about words and promises rather than contracts already signed and paid for.. However, Aleppo keep buzzing into the conversation like a mosquito; if every city is important, the fall of Aleppo will be a disaster.. It will trigger a chain reaction driving smaller cities to follow”.

Having summarised the article, I can safely conclude: the American scenario has been improved and refined to meet new American and Western strategic exigencies in the area.. Don’t forget that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey all possess and have access to US made weaponry.. Just consult the Purchase Orders made and deliveries received by each of them in the past couple of years.

Pass On The Word.